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从电力规划看煤电产能过剩和可再生能源弃电的问题

by Max Dupuy Wang Xuan on

最近几个月,中国政府为解决可再生能源弃电和煤电机组投资过度双重挑战颁布了一系列政策。特别是国家发改委,国家能源局《关于做好风电、光伏发电全额保障性收购管理工作的通知》(发改能源【2016】1150号)和《关于促进我国煤电有序发展的通知》(发改能源【2016】565号)。这些政策可能在近期会取得一些实质性的进展,然而它们并没有涉及到背后更深层次的问题,即增加系统灵活性的需求,改革对发电商的补偿机制,而是依赖于一些固化的手段:保障风电和太阳能光伏发电的年运行小时数,以及暂缓建设和批准电力盈余省份的煤电项目。 与此同时,国家能源局六月份发布了《电力规划管理办法》,这可能最终会对改善可再生能源并网和减少煤电过度投资起到更重要的作用。这个文件为制定更好的电力行业规划建立了框架,承诺要从以满足快速电力需求增长为首要目标的模式向更复杂地权衡多目标的发展模式转变,包括支持可再生能源发展,实现电力系统安全可靠、经济合理、清洁环保等。 中国的国民经济和社会发展五年计划和其他的产业规划为国民经济发展指明了目标和方向。然而,协调统一的电力行业规划在中国却很长时间处于缺位状态,这也是造成可再生能源弃电和过度投资煤电的主要因素之一。中国电力行业在过去的十年间快速发展,监管者和政府部门却很少关注制定协调统一的规划。睿博能源智库之前的报告讨论了中国电力行业规划的历史,包括最近几年未发布电力行业规划的事实,并阐述了美国和欧洲的典型经验。 美国也曾有过电力系统快速扩张而对成本和环境影响重视不足的历史。然而,20世纪70年代,许多州在面临改善空气质量和经济增长趋缓的形势下,开始转向更理性的电力系统规划。美国的大部分地区实施了精心设计的综合资源规划,甚至是在美国建立电力市场的地区,规划仍然在评估资源充足性、传达调整市场设计的需求以及帮助协调对发电侧、输电侧和需求侧资源投资方面扮演着十分重要的作用。最近几年,特别是为更好地迎接可再生能源并网带来的挑战,美国电力行业规划的具体做法仍在不断完善中。 透明度和协调性:新政策令人鼓舞的亮点 中国新颁布的电力规划管理办法有许多令人振奋的特点。首先,它以五年为期限,滚动制定电力行业规划,并确定了研究,准备,发布,实施,调整和评估等关键结点。其次,办法要求加强透明度,为征求外部专家和电力行业相关单位意见建立了一个流程。第三,办法将协调和统一的概念放在了首要和核心位置:  协调水电、煤电、气电,核电、风能和太阳能发电等各个发电投资。 协调输电和发电规划—这是之前很多困难的源头之一。 号召协调国家规划和省级规划。 要求加强环境影响评价,更广泛地,将电力行业规划和环境规划更好地相结合。 这个新的政策还进一步要求促进电力规划和土地利用、城乡建设、环境保护、水资源利用等相关部门的协调,加强电力规划与交通运输、供气供热等的协调。最后一点非常及时,因为热电联产机组在北方的快速发展是导致电网缺乏灵活性并造成弃风的主要原因之一。 能效以及“风险意识”规划有待加强 这个新的政策推动了许多重要的概念,在很多方面和睿博能源智库长期推荐的最佳实践保持一致,但是新的规划办法在宏观层面上仍然存在一些缺陷。首先,办法没有提及需求侧资源或者没有强调将终端能效作为一种资源(虽然一些媒体的报道反映电力规划最终会考虑终端能效资源)在北美,将能效投资和传统电力系统资源投资相比较的机制在协调统一的电力规划中非常重要并且十分具有成本效益。 其次,虽然办法提出了透明度和相关利益方参与的概念,但在某种程度上仍然有限。根据电力规划管理办法,电力规划研究机构负责规划的研究分析,并由电力企业、电力行业协会如电力企业联合会和其他学术专家等协助完成。在美国,更广泛的公众参与,包括代表消费者和公众利益的专业机构,很多时候会发出不同于电力企业集团的声音。此外,中国媒体近些年在这些领域的分析能力和影响力都有很大的提升,在足够的参与和有充足的发挥余地前提下,可能为电力规划提供有用的建议。 第三,规范办法如果能够明确提出“风险意识”的规划概念则会更好。新的规划流程在对比资源投资选择时应该包括对多个风险因素的谨慎评估。这些风险因素包括燃料成本风险、建造风险(非计划性成本增加和延迟)、水资源约束风险和碳价风险。相关地,支持规划的分析应该考虑到还未确定或实施的但有可能发生的政策目标的改变,例如,可预见的更严格的环境政策。 第四,规划管理办法并未真正涉及如何获得规划中预定结果的问题。办法简单地提及了规划指导和探索建设电力项目的市场化新机制(第38条)。在政府规划调控下发挥市场配置资源的作用是明智的,同时也符合其他国家的最佳实践。中国在此轮电力体制改革中将利用市场机制作为基本原则,并宣布进行省级试点,但是对市场机制细节的设计仍然处于初级的阶段,未来在这方面仍然需要做很多工作,特别是1)利用新的规划确定所需的资源,2)规划流程指导市场设计,3)市场机制提供规划确定的资源。 一切取决于实施 新的办法强调了用来限制规划外违规建设项目的措施(第30条),规定未经核准的电力项目不能通过正常渠道获得回报。目前虽然有其他现行的政策,但仍然需要考虑其他的保障措施来阻止不必要项目的建设和资源的浪费。总而言之,实施和执行会是个巨大的挑战。 新的管理办法为电力规划确立了路线图,这可能会比现有临时解决可再生能源并网和减少对污染且昂贵的煤电进行投资的做法更为有效。然而办法比较概括,可能需要很长时间落实。下一步中国政府应该将提高机构能力建设,完善分析方法和工具,并确保充足的监督和透明度提上日程。 点击可阅读英文版

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by Max Dupuy Wang Xuan on

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