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国际视野:对创建“全国统一电力市场”的下一步工作建议

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近日,国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布了《关于加快建设全国统一电力市场体系的指导意见》 (发改体改〔2022〕118)。该文件为电力市场改革又向前迈出了重要一步,比如,该政策中制定了总体目标,要求在2025年前,国家市场与省(区、市)/区域市场协同运行,电力中长期、现货、辅助服务市场一体化设计、联合运营。同时,还提出优化电力市场总体设计”,“建设全国统一的电力市场体系,统一交易规则和技术标准等关于电力市场建设的要求。 

基于国际相关经验,以及对中国电力市场的了解,本文分别从以下五点提出落实该政策可考虑实施的建议,仅供参考: 

  • 以统一的算法优化区域调度的区域现货市场,是清洁能源转型的重要组成部分 
  • 中长期合同利用金融手段比物理手段更灵活、更利于可再生能源发电并网 
  • 电力现货市场的一个关键功能是在调度决策中反映不同资源的真实边际成本 
  • 输电定价不应成为统一区域市场和调度的壁垒 
  • 支持发电机容量成本回收的措施应谨慎加以限制。 

本文首登于南方能源观察(2022318

     

Price shock absorber: Temporary electricity price relief during times of gas market crisis

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European policymakers are weighing possible responses to the extraordinary surge in energy prices and the consequences for citizens and industry. The European Commission expects to issue additional guidance in May, following analysis due in April from the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators. Targeted relief to vulnerable consumers should be undertaken in any case. Whilst RAP would urge caution in considering possible broader interventions in the electricity markets, if such a course of action is under serious consideration, we offer this proposal of a ‘price shock absorber’ for reflection as a measure best fit for purpose, designed to acknowledge and address the essential aspects of the current crisis:

  • This is a gas market crisis — it is an extraordinary event that is adversely affecting all sectors of Europe’s economy. The priority for the electricity sector must be measures that allow the electricity market to ride through this shock to the system, and similar future shocks, preserving its functionality whilst avoiding undue harm to consumers.
  • The midst of a crisis is the wrong time to take decisions with long-term implications that will be difficult to walk back once the crisis has passed. Our proposal acknowledges that the fundamental design of the electricity market is sound; whilst improvements are certainly needed, they have no direct bearing on the causes of or remedies for this crisis.
  • This crisis has revealed in stark terms the true cost of dependence on a volatile fossil gas market, including the risks inherent in the prominent position Russia will continue to occupy in global supply.
  • Consumers and industry have the power to contribute to the response to these risks, by procuring the energy services they need more efficiently and flexibly.

When responding to the crisis, policymakers should preserve and even intensify the electricity market’s role in mobilising and empowering consumers rather than concealing the true cost of ‘business as usual.’ The value of the only durable response — an accelerated transition away from fossil fuels — must remain visible to consumers in an equitable fashion.

The authors outline this price shock absorber mechanism as an additional market feature to bring consumers some measure of relief whilst preserving the market’s essential functions. These include valuing energy efficiency, rewarding beneficial demand and resource flexibility and ensuring a ‘normal’ level of expected inframarginal rent to incentivise and compensate investors in the energy transition for the value of their investments. If a decision is taken to intervene broadly in the electricity market, we suggest this approach offers a significant measure of relief whilst doing the least harm.

 

Indian power sector has opportunities to create value for the discoms and their consumers by mainstreaming behind-the-meter resources

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The electricity sector in India has experienced an evolution of sorts throughout the years. Since the early the 1990s, the sector has grown from a vertically integrated monopoly with generation, transmission, and distribution all under one roof, to the current structure in accord with the Electricity Act of 2003 where the three have been unbundled and now operate separately. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) has made substantial progress towards promoting end-use efficiency with more than 15% savings demonstrated in the appliance-level energy use with its labelling and standards plans. The Indian power sector has created a conducive environment for renewable energy generators: as of 31 January 2022, renewables constituted 26.8% of the nation’s total installed capacity of 370 GW. The politics of subsidised or free electricity to a certain category of consumers, a legacy practice followed by the distribution companies (discoms), puts undue pressure on the entire power sector’s financial health.

The four charts below show Average Billing Rate (ABR),* Aggregated Revenue Requirement (ARR),** revenue gap (difference between the average cost of supply (ACS) and ARR, and Aggregated Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses for discoms in major states.*** 

The distribution sector in India is also struggling. As of March 2021, the sector owes over INR 85,000 Crores (approx. U.S. $12 billion) to the generation companies. Discoms depend on the commercial and industrial (C&I) consumer base to subsidise the agriculture and the low-volume domestic customer classes, as seen in the difference between energy sales and revenues in the figure below.

Source: PFC, 2019

The C&I consumers will continue to provide the lion’s share of discom revenues, even if they take advantage of “open access” (the freedom to buy power from sources other than the incumbent discoms), because they are nevertheless required to pay high cross-subsidy surcharges and wheeling charges (power distribution charges). It’s important to retain such consumers within the incumbent discoms with key objectives of promoting higher renewable energy shares in the power mix, as well as reducing the electricity use with a deeper portfolio of energy efficient end-use practices. The discoms’ heavy dependence on C&I consumers to generate sufficient revenues creates significant barriers to decarbonisation investment opportunities among these consumers.

C&I consumers have an intrinsic need to reduce their power costs. Open access is a powerful opportunity for these consumers. So too are on-site efficiency and distributed resources, but such behind-the-meter investments are not encouraged by the discoms, given the threat of reduced revenues that they pose. Along those same lines, behind-the-meter generation (rooftop photovoltaic) within the consumer base is not easy to implement without on-site storage options or net metering/renewable energy export opportunities provided by the discoms. In several states, net metering policies do not favour the consumers creating large capacities to be exported to the grid beyond their diurnal requirements. It’s also opportune to deepen the behind-the-meter renewable energy and energy efficiency portfolio, combined with the storage solutions, at the consumer categories that are heavily subsidised.

One key opportunity to be explored in creating a substantive renewable energy, efficiency and storage portfolio on both sides of the meters is the possibility of discoms doubling up to become new energy service providers as much as legally possible. We hypothesise the possibility of developing a stronger efficiency, renewables, demand-responsive, end-use consumption, with adequate thermal and battery storage solutions at the consumer-side of the meter amongst all the customer categories.

Our team is currently exploring the efficacy and benefit-costs of discoms and consumers co-investing in behind-the-meter efficiency, dispersed solar, storage and demand-responsive end-use consumption patterns. We’re also researching in detail the regulatory regime that allows such investments, the benefit-costs of making investments in the behind-the-meter efficiency and renewables assets, and existing enhanced power sales opportunities through the possibility of selling saved energy for newer uses, such as electric vehicles. Other key benefits of enhanced renewable energy assets on the customer side of meter is the possibility of exporting renewable energy sources to other regions through an aggregated sale on the exchanges. More to come.

*ABR is calculated as ABR = Revenue expected from all categories million Rs /Approved sales in MU. The data has been obtained from the latest ARR of the respective utilities.

**This is the approved ARR for the upcoming year for the respective utilities. 

***Discom key:

  • Maharashtra: MSEDCL
  • Punjab: PSCPL
  • Gujarat: UGVCL; PGVCL; MGVCL; DGVCL
  • Karnataka: BESCOM
  • Tamil Nadu: TANGEDCO

电力现货市场风险管理:发电运行成本分析、电力现货市场监测、市场力筛选和减缓

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国际经验表明,电力市场,特别是电力现货市场,很容易受到操纵,从而导致增加不必要的成本和排放,降低系统效率。在电力短缺和输电系统阻塞时,这些问题将更加突出。随着现货市场在全国范围内的发展,完善市场监管的需求将继续增长。总的来说,在欧洲、美国以及世界其他地区,电力市场在很多不同的方面受到密切的监管 。本文以美国为例 ,主要从发电运行成本分析、电力市场监测、市场力筛选和减缓等方面进行分析,以期对中国电力现货市场提供参考。

本文初稿于2021年完成,在结合和国内专家的讨论后,我们于今年3月正式发表在网站上,以便与更多行业内同仁分享。

解锁一体化区域电力市场的收益

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中国的风能和太阳能装机容量仍居世界领先地位,总装机容量超过500吉瓦。此外,中国承诺在2030年前达到碳排放峰值,并在2060年前实现碳中和,为此,中国制定了到2030年,风能和太阳能发电总装机容量达到1200吉瓦,即从2020年起每年新增约80吉瓦可再生能源发电的目标。由此,电网公司也面临着更多风能和太阳能并网所带来的挑战。尽管每个国家的政策、机制和技术情况不尽相同,随着可再生能源的渗透率提高,世界各地的电网运行商和政策制定者将面临类似的挑战。中国已经在消纳风能和太阳能发电方面取得了令人印象深刻的进展,但正如一些研究中提到的,要确保所有这些机制良好地协同工作,还有很多工作要做。

世界各地应对这些挑战的一个基本方法,对中国来说也同样至关重要,那就是建立更多的区域市场,脱离以省为单位的调度方式并向区域经济调度过渡。区域经济调度是指以最小化短期运行成本(理想情况下包括排放的社会成本)为目的运行区域电力系统。在一些地区,如中国西北地区,基于省级的电力调度意味着各省级调度中心在更大地理范围平衡可再生能源和水力发电的作用会受限。

在有充足输电能力的前提下,区域经济调度将促进发电边际成本较低的省份向发电边际成本较高的省份输出电力。特别是,区域经济调度将在更大的范围内平衡风能和太阳能发电,减少这些资源的总体可变性和不确定性,并利用负荷和其他发电资源的多样性优势。这也将有助于减少可再生能源弃电,并以低排放低成本的方式帮助管理和预防缺电。

一、区域市场模式有效缓解市场矛盾

随着中国迈向具有更大跨省输电能力的区域市场,可以借鉴美国的区域市场(RTO)模式。这种模式包括日前和实时电能量和辅助服务市场,区域经济调度,以及所有资源公平竞争的指导原则。南方电网地区已率先开展“区域市场”建设,尽管有关该市场将如何发展的许多细节似乎仍在考量中。与此同时,在中国其他地区,如可再生能源资源丰富的西北地区,区域市场一体化也是一个非常重要的议题。

向区域市场和区域经济调度转变,无论是通过RTO还是类似的模式,都将以多种形式为中国带来实质性的利益:降低运行成本,减少运行备用容量,提高现有输电资产的利用率,通过协调计划发电机组维护和停机以及实时管理电频和电压,提高系统可靠性,完善系统规划。在这里,我们基于美国一些RTO的研究,提供一小部分可获得利益的样本。

首先,通过向RTO结构过渡,可以实现的一个好处是,不再对每笔输电交易收取每千瓦时或每千瓦的输电费用,而是按月或年向所有省级电网公司分摊输电成本。例如,在中国,电力输入省份每输入1千瓦时通常需支付“元/千瓦时”的输电价格。这种每千瓦时的交易费用对参与者之间的电力交易造成了障碍,而若无此交易费用电力交易本来可以具有经济性。从基于交易的输电费用向省级电网公司收取月度或年度输电费用的转变,避免了这一问题,与区域经济调度的转变更相符。

尽管与中国略有不同,美国也有输电交易费用阻碍市场参与者之间进行更多电力交易的经验。在目前覆盖美国约三分之二地区的RTO成立之前,电力公司管理各自的服务区域,导致很高的交易成本。跨越一个以上电力公司服务区域的交易被评估收取单独的输电费用,这种做法被称为“摊大饼电价”(pancaked rates),随着更多的输电系统参与进来,成本迅速叠加。不出所料,这样的输电费用阻碍了电力公司之间进行电力交易。此外,电力公司留出了5%~25%的现有输电容量,以支持这些双边交易,而这些预留容量往往没有得到充分利用。在美国西部和东南部的部分地区,这种做法仍然存在。

所有这些问题在RTO运行的区域市场都不复存在。按RTO输电成本分摊方法,输电被视为一项公共利益,由所有参与者按“美元/千瓦”的接入费用支付,不与单个交易挂钩。“摊大饼”式的输电费用根本不存在,随着交易成本的降低,各方之间的电力交易——包括跨更大地理区域的电力交易大幅增加。RTO的日前和实时电能量市场接受参与者的投标,并在安全限制的基础上进行区域调度,输电资产得到更充分的利用。

二、区域能源调度降低了经济与环境成本

中陆独立系统运行商(The Midcontinental Independent System Operator,简称MISO )是一家业务覆盖美国15个州以及加拿大马尼托巴省的RTO,据估计,2020年,区域经济调度为其成员节省了3.29~3.63亿美元,而输电可用性的改善又为他们节省了2.88~3.13亿美元。类似地,服务于13个州和哥伦比亚特区的PJM发现,区域调度每年可节省6亿美元的成本。这些估计未包含区域经济调度所带来的环境效益,例如减排量。这些效益会在未来几年到几十年随着越来越多的可再生能源并网而大幅增加。

在较大范围内的系统运行还可带来其他效益,因为不仅风能和太阳能的可变性降低了,电力需求的可变性也降低了。由于供需两侧可变性的降低,确保电力系统可靠性所需的备用容量则相应减少。2020年,涵盖14个州的西南电力池(Southwest Power Pool,简称SPP)估计,整个区域需要1514兆瓦的运行备用容量,而如果单个电力公司自己提供备用容量,则需要9068兆瓦,这样算下来就节省了5.42亿美元。MISO估计,由于地理多样性,2020年减少15吉瓦左右运行备用,成本节约在19亿到24亿美元之间。MISO认为从百分比来看,这种地理多样性使得备用容量减少了7%,从25.2%降到18%。PJM估计,由于区域市场所需备用容量的减少,可节省12~18亿美元。同样,这些估计未包含环境效益,比如减排量。

三、区域间电网互联,有效保障系统安全

到目前为止,我们已经讨论了区域内部市场和运行实践的巨大好处,此外,区域间市场通过合作和协调,或通过连接多个区域的大规模输电,或两者兼有,也会带来额外的好处。太平洋西北部和西南沙漠地区之间的电力交换就是一个长期的例子。由于电力需求高峰的时间不同——西北太平洋地区的冬季高峰和西南沙漠地区的夏季高峰——这两个地区有必要选择在各自的高峰需求期间相互传输电力,而不是各自提高系统容量。

从更广泛的角度来看,美国的电网(不包括阿拉斯加和夏威夷)由三大内部电网互联组成:东部电网、西部电网和德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会(ERCOT),后者覆盖了德克萨斯州的大部分,但不是全部。这三者之间的互联是很有限的——他们基本上独立运行,相互之间的电力传输量很小。国家可再生能源实验室(National Renewable Energy Laboratory,简称NREL)评估了在各种不同的假设下(例如,天然气价格低,天然气价格高,等等),通过一系列高压直流输电线路连接美国东部和西部电网会带来何种效益,研究发现,除了一种情景外,其余所有情景下的经济收益都远远超过成本。而且,大部分经济效益来自于更大的输电能力促进了发电运行成本的降低。

在节约成本的同时,地区间更强大的电网互联也能带来可靠性和韧性方面的好处,这一点在2021年2月席卷美国南部的冬季风暴“乌里”中得到了证明。ERCOT与州外电网的连接有限。德克萨斯州冬季需求比预期高得多,发电机组的表现不佳等诸多因素导致了这场危机,在州外如果有更强的电网互联必定会对缓解该危机有所帮助。

与此不同的是,SPP和MISO虽然也面临严寒天气,但通过从没有受到“乌里”影响的其他地区输入电力,最大限度地减少了电力短缺。在风暴的高峰期,MISO从邻近电网输入了大约12吉瓦电力。MISO估计,2011年,作为其多价值项目(Multi-Value Project)输电计划的一部分进行的输电投资,以约65亿美元成本建造,仅在冬季风暴“乌里”期间就带来了约180亿美元的效益。电网战略有限责任公司(Grid Strategies LLC)计算得出,在冬季风暴“乌里”期间,额外增加1 GW德克萨斯州与美国东南部输电的连接,就可以节省近10亿美元。

四、总结

在中国,虽然会存在输电投资是否足够,选址是否正确的担忧,但总的来说,近年来许多高压直流输电线路的建设给中国电力行业带来了益处。换句话说,中国已经具备了成功的开展区域经济调度和区域市场的基础设施。中国面临的挑战是制定一项计划和时间表,将这些市场机制落实到位。正如本文所讨论的,“美国RTO”是实现区域市场的一种模式。

更具体地,我们对中国提出以下几个“下一步”政策建议:

  • 为南方区域电力现货市场的建设制定一个清晰的路线图,由于南方电网是第一个开展区域电力市场工作的地区,这将是在全国范围内建设区域市场迈出的重要一步。我们建议不仅仅停留在对区域内几个省级现货市场的简单关联,而是以类似美国RTO模式形成区域电力市场。这样的区域电力市场除了实施上述的现货市场机制以外,还应该对输电成本分摊和输电规划采取区域一体化的方式;此外,成立一个单一的区域系统运行商(调度中心)和市场运行商,这两者可以属于同一个机构,例如,作为电网公司的一部分,或者也可以单独成立。
  • 制定一项政策规则,由从每一次输电收取度电固定输电费用,转向将区域输电成本按年度或者月度向省级电网公司分摊的做法。国家发改委最近发布的《跨省跨区专项工程输电价格定价方法》中,在从严审批电网公司跨省跨区输电成本和改善电网运行效率等方面迈出了新的步伐。然而,它依旧采用了对每笔交易收取固定电量电价的方法来回收输电成本。这样的输电成本回收方法很可能继续作为实现区域内、跨区经济调度和解锁区域市场相关收益的绊脚石。
  • 相对领先的地区可以率先形成RTO模式的区域市场,而其他地区也能够通过逐步向区域经济调度转变来获得收益。正如我们对中国西北地区电力行业转型提出的建议,应该逐渐改变在该区域内以省为中心的调度方式。西北区域电网公司调度中心应该在审查和调整(目前是以省为基础)运行决策方面发挥更积极的作用。也就是说,为了帮助区域优化风能、太阳能和水电,西北区域电网调度中心应享有调整省级水电和煤电机组安排的权力。

最近几年,中国的政策制定者和行业相关者已经在改善调度运行效率、促进跨省跨区电力交易以及增加太阳能、风能并网发电量方面取得了显著的进展。然而,正如世界上其他国家一样,在区域电力市场改革方面还有许多工作要做。我们希望这些建议能够帮助解锁区域电力市场带来的持续收益,为中国早日实现清洁能源和低碳目标做出贡献。

本文首刊于南方能源观察,11月26日 

Responses to fossil gas price volatility

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The first ten months of 2021 have seen dramatic increases in energy prices in Europe and elsewhere. Experts now agree that the surging international demand for liquified natural gas and the rise in gas prices are driving electricity prices to seldom-seen heights. The fact that fossil gas accounts for 45% of household energy for heating is real reason for concern, with winter just around the corner.

Governments around Europe are scrambling to find ways to help families struggling to pay their energy bills this winter. The European Commission has now issued a toolbox of short-term recommendations to mitigate the effects of this crisis. RAP also offers guidance on this dynamic situation, with a focus on the current circumstances. Authors Bram Claeys, Michael Hogan and Dominic Scott explore near-term relief measures for Europe’s most vulnerable consumers as well as long-term solutions to ensure this crisis does not repeat.

Analysis of the root causes of the electricity price ‘roller coaster’ shows that the best and most durable solution to alleviate the social and economic impact of volatile fossil fuel prices is tackling the demand for fossil gas. Reducing Europe’s appetite for this fuel requires prioritising energy efficiency, ensuring a massive rollout of solar and wind, electrifying end uses currently served by natural gas, and limiting the use of hydrogen to green hydrogen solutions devoted strictly to hard-to-reach applications.