2025年底，中国可再生能源装机已占总装机容量的60%，其发电量约占总发电量的40%。同时，各行业的电气化进程加快，这些趋势叠加气候变化等因素增加了电力系统供需预测的不确定性，调节能力对于确保电力系统安全可靠运行的作用逐渐彰显。国家发改委和能源局颁布了《电力系统调节能力优化专项行动实施方案（2025—2027年）》 以更好地测算调节能力需求，并激励灵活性资源的建设。
本文从调节能力需求入手，提出了改善现有电力系统资源充足性规划的一些建议。这包括利用前瞻性的思维在系统规划中反映能源转型的合理路径，从优化时间跨度和空间维度更好地制定电力系统规划的细节要求，以及增加规划的透明度和公众参与。同时，由于电力系统调节能力涵盖的内容较为广泛，需要依据调节方向、响应时间、响应时长、爬坡速率等特征进一步细分并差异化评估调节能力需求。
在此基础上，鉴于目前地方层面开始着手制定市场化的容量补偿电价政策，结合国际上的前沿讨论和实际经验，我们认为下一步可以利用调节能力/资源充足性规划的结果来更好地指导容量市场，对能够在特定时段满足系统调节需要的资源给予额外的补偿和支持。这种机制鼓励多种资源的市场竞争，以成本有效地解决由于调节能力不足而导致的系统可靠性问题，为新型电力系统建设和能源转型提供有力支撑。
本文首发于《中国能源观察》11月刊
At the end of 2025, China’s renewable energy accounts for 60% of total installed capacity, with power generation making up 40% of total electricity output. At the same time, the electrification process is accelerating across various sectors. These trends, combined with factors such as climate change and increased uncertainty in supply and demand forecasts, highlights the growing importance of flexibility in ensuring the reliable operation of the power system. In response, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the “Implementation Plan for the Special Action on Optimization of Power System Regulating Capability (2025-2027)” to better assess flexibility needs and incentivize the development of flexible resources.
This article starts from integrating flexibility considerations into the existing resource adequacy planning. This includes using forward-looking methodologies to reflect reasonable pathways for energy transition, formulating detailed requirements through optimizing temporal and spatial dimensions of power system planning, and increasing transparency and public participation. Furthermore, since power system regulating capability encompasses a wide range of aspects, it needs to be further categorized and evaluated differently based on features such as regulation direction, response time, duration, and ramping rate.
On this basis, given that some local governments start to develop market-based capacity mechanisms, drawing on international discussions and practical experiences, we believe the next step could be to use the results of regulating capacity/resource adequacy planning to better guide the capacity market. Resources that can meet system flexibility needs during specific periods could receive additional compensation and support. This new mechanism will encourage market competition among various resources, cost-effectively address system reliability issues due to inadequate regulating capability, and provide a strong foundation for new power systems in the energy transition.
This article was published in the November issue of China Energy Observation
