在应对气候变化和能源危机背景下，绿色低碳转型是实现全球经济与能源可持续发展的必要路径。分布式能源因具有清洁、低碳、且离负荷中心较近等优点，是以新能源为主体的新型电力系统的重要组成部分。在过去15年中，中国分布式能源政策不断演化和发展。根据近期政策，在2020到2025年期间，现行的政策支持逐步取消，分布式能源将逐渐转向市场导向和竞争模式。因此，“十四五”期间是分布式能源发展由补贴驱动转为市场驱动的重要转折期。
为进一步推动分布式新能源在中国的发展和利用，在这篇文章中，我们分析了分布式能源的经济价值，梳理了中国现有的分布式能源发展模型，并为其市场参与机制等方面提出一些建议。
近年来，随着煤电倒挂现象以及电力现货市场的快速发展，容量补偿机制已成为热门话题。睿博能源智库之前已探讨过稀缺电价相关问题，而本文与E3共同撰写，旨在简要介绍美国容量补偿机制的设计原则，并结合中国国情，提出在中国电力市场实施容量补偿机制的建议。这些建议包括：
1）容量补偿机制不应是必须的，而应该根据当地电力资源稀缺情况决定是否实施；
2）容量补偿机制应该基于科学稳健的资源充足性评估过程，避免补偿不必要的资源，并且不应保证所有资源的成本回收；
3）容量补偿机制应该平等对待所有资源，包括需求侧资源；以及
4）容量补偿机制应该采取绩效问责制，对在系统紧张时无法提供电力的资源予以惩罚。
本文首刊于《南方能源观察》（2023年3月23日）
La energía utilizada para la calefacción y refrigeración representa alrededor del 50% del consumo total de energía en el mundo. De esta cifra, casi la mitad se consume para calentar edificios. Y la mayor parte de la energía utilizada se obtiene de combustibles fósiles. Si bien las medidas de eficiencia energética en los edificios pueden contribuir enormemente a reducir las emisiones de la calefacción y la refrigeración, sigue habiendo una gran demanda de alternativas de calefacción con bajas o nulas emisiones de carbono.
Últimamente, los representantes de la industria del gas y la calefacción han promovido el hidrógeno verde como solución clave para sustituir al gas fósil en la red de distribución. Aunque hay muchos usos finales legítimos, actuales y futuros, para el hidrógeno verde, ¿existen pruebas que justifiquen la calefacción de edificios con hidrógeno?
Este artículo analiza diversos análisis independientes sobre el uso del hidrógeno para calentar espacios interiores y para el uso de agua caliente. Se incluyen un total de 32 estudios realizados a escala internacional, regional, nacional, estatal y municipal por un amplio abanico de entidades, como universidades, institutos de investigación, organizaciones intergubernamentales y consultoras. Ninguno de los 32 estudios, mediante el análisis de las pruebas, avala el uso generalizado del hidrógeno para calefacción. Por el contrario, la investigación independiente existente hasta el momento sugiere que, en comparación con otras alternativas como las bombas de calor, la energía solar térmica y la calefacción urbana, el uso del hidrógeno para la calefacción doméstica es menos económico, menos eficiente, consume más recursos y está asociado a un mayor impacto medioambiental.
Europe is heavily reliant on fossil fuels in the heating sector. The EU has set itself a goal of deploying 30 million additional heat pumps by 2030. To advance the transition away from fossil fuels in the heating sector, the EU and its Member States have recently proposed or agreed on several heat-related policies. This includes an emissions trading scheme for greenhouse gases from heating and transport. The European Commission also announced that it will propose a revision of ecodesign rules for heating appliances, meaning a de facto ban on the sale of standalone fossil fuel boilers by 2029. Despite these positive actions, additional policy measures are needed to achieve rapid, effective and fair decarbonisation of heating.
This paper explores how novel policy tools called ‘clean heat standards’ could reinforce the EU framework for heat decarbonisation. Clean heat standards place a quantitative target on market actors, such as energy network companies, energy suppliers and manufacturers of heating equipment, to decarbonise heating and provide some flexibility in how to achieve it. This definition captures different tools, including some already discussed or in use in France, Ireland, the United Kingdom and the United States. These tools can complement other clean transition policies, for instance appliance standards and bans can directly rule out certain technologies from the market, while clean heat standards could provide a positive target for market actors to meet.
Clean heat standards, coupled with complementary policies, can help accelerate the transition away from fossil fuel heating. RAP offers recommendations to help decision-makers make the most of these tools.
The government of the United Kingdom is currently consulting on whether it should mandate that all new gas boilers sold from 2025 be ‘hydrogen-ready’ — that is, they can potentially be converted to run on pure hydrogen in case the gas network is ever converted. This policy change has been proffered as a ‘low-regrets’ policy change.
The government is expected to take a decision on the use of hydrogen heating in 2026. Until such a decision is made, the mandating of ‘hydrogen-ready’ boilers seems to be a case of putting the cart before the horse. The vast majority of independent analysis suggests only a niche role for hydrogen in heating, with heat pumps and heat networks by far the most cost-effective technologies. Far from a ‘low-regrets’ option, the proposed mandate could create risks for heat decarbonisation and long-term disadvantages for consumers. There is a major risk of greenwashing leading to consumer confusion and delay, a risk that boiler prices increase and the potential for government to end up in a heat decarbonisation ‘blame-game.’
This brief details the risks of a ‘hydrogen-ready’ boiler mandate being made before the government’s decision on the use of hydrogen heating. The brief suggests that if hydrogen heating should be found favourable in 2026, only then should mandates around hydrogen boilers be considered and even then only in conjunction with a heatmapping process. Until such time, the proposed mandate of ‘hydrogen-ready’ boilers is also ‘regret-ready.’
RAP developed a model rule for use by U.S. state and local air quality regulators to reduce nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from water heaters. This technical support document was published to assist regulators and staff in understanding and making use of the model rule. It describes why water heaters are a significant source of air pollution, why NOx emissions standards are an excellent tool for reducing the environmental impact of water heaters and how those standards can promote electrification and market transformation. It also explains in detail the design and structure of the model rule.
The European energy crisis was not caused by the electricity market. But it sure made people pay closer-than-usual attention to its design. That is not a bad thing. The electricity market becomes ever more important as large swaths of the economy further electrify. The electricity market therefore needs to be fit-for-purpose. In this briefing, RAP lays out how the electricity market can deliver better, faster and stronger for the energy transition and the people living it.
Any follow-up to the crisis should aim to speed up the replacement of fossil fuels with renewables, demand-side flexibility, storage and energy efficiency. The focus of market reform induced by this crisis should be to elevate the demand side on par with supply-side resources and improve hedging in the market to alleviate the remainder of the ongoing crisis and prepare for the next. This requires boosting a new portfolio of longer-term market features to share risks and benefit consumers.
Here, RAP discusses the following advances in market design:
Significant progress has been made in the renewable energy sector, with wind and solar power making up a substantial portion of global power production, accounting for almost one-quarter of noncarbon-emitting generation. This is a considerable improvement from just a decade ago when they produced less than 1% of total global electricity. Furthermore, wind and solar power are now often the long term, least cost options, making them an attractive investment for countries looking to decarbonize their energy systems.
Despite the growing momentum towards renewable energy, global coal-fired generation still totaled a record high in 2021, up by 8.5% from the previous year. The lion’s share of CO2 emissions still come from countries committed to becoming net-zero carbon in the next few decades. Nonetheless, this article suggests that a decarbonized global power system is still possible and the transition can be achieved at a low cost while maintaining high levels of reliability.
To support this clean energy transition, the article discusses the power sector reforms that are currently underway in India, China and Europe. Despite their different institutions, history and power system setups, these regions share some common trends: they rely heavily on planning and recognize the value of demand-side resources. These regions offer promising pathways for power sector reform and they provide hope for a decarbonized energy future.
本报告已有中文版
可再生能源领域在近年取得了巨大进展：十年前，风能和太阳能仅占全球电力生产的1％，而现如今，这些资源已成为全球电力生产的重要组成部分，占非碳排放发电的近四分之一。这与它们成本的不断降低有很大关系。长期来看，目前风能和太阳能通常是成本最低的选择，这使其成为了有能源系统减碳目标国家的有利投资。
尽管可再生能源增长势头不减，全球燃煤发电在2021年仍达到了创纪录的高度，比上一年增长了8.5％。二氧化碳排放的绝大部分仍来自于承诺在未来几十年内实现净零碳的国家。尽管如此，本文认为，一个脱碳的全球电力系统仍然是可能的，并且可以在保证高水平可靠性的基础上，以低成本实现过渡。
为了支持这种清洁能源转型，本文讨论了目前正在印度、中国和欧洲进行的电力行业改革。尽管它们有不同的机构、历史和电力系统设置，但这些地区有一些共同的趋势：这些转型都以可靠的规划为基石，同时越发重视需求侧资源的价值。这些地区为全球各国电力行业改革提供了可实现的途径，为脱碳能源的未来带来了希望。
English version is also available.
Accurately forecasting electricity demand in India is imperative for governments, utilities and industries when it comes to investment and planning decisions. Over the years, forecasting has becoming even more challenging as planners must take into account changes in technology, load profiles, consumer energy end-use, and economic growth. The changes are the leading cause of uncertainty when it comes to future electricity demand.
In Review of Integrated Resource Planning and Load Forecasting Techniques in India, the authors provide an overview of India’s system of load research and integrated resource planning (IRP), describe related experiences in other developing countries, and deliver recommendations that could strengthen the process in India. The goal is to enable India’s power sector to reliably, efficiently and sustainably meet the country’s demand for electricity.
