新形势下的电力行业改革: 促进系统稳定性、降低风险、加速碳达峰

中国做出具有历史性意义的双碳目标承诺后，中共中央、国务院、国家发改委和国家能源局发布了“1+N”政策体系中的首要两个政策文件，为电力部门制定了顶层设计方案，提出了“加快建设新型电力系统”及“优化清洁能源发电”等要求。2021年以来，各行各业分领域的政策文件陆续出台，初步构成了“1+N”政策体系。本系列文章旨在聚焦电力行业改革，为细化政策指令提出建议，以望在近期（即“十四五规划”）内对该政策体系提供支持。这些建议既基于我们全球团队对世界其他地区电力行业中许多措施可行性的分析，也综合了我们对中国政策和制度的理解，包括与政府相关部门和合作伙伴数十年的讨论与合作。

本文为此系列第一篇，概述了我们对电力部门改革的各方面建议，具体涵盖如下领域：

• 实施“全国统一电力市场体系”的下一步工作；
• 实施透明的电力部门规划，支持转型期间系统可靠性；
• 解锁低成本方案以支持系统灵活性和可再生能源并网；
• 在电力行业改革工作中落实“节约优先”的承诺。

This paper is also available in English.

Zestaw narzędzi do wdrożenia pomp ciepła globalnie i na masową skalę

Pompy ciepła to jedna z kluczowych technologii na drodze transformacji energetycznej, już niedługo stanie się najważniejszą technologią dla dekarbonizacji ogrzewnictwa. Obecnie zdecydowana większość ciepła do gospodarstw domowych jest dostarczana przez paliwa kopalne. W celu promowania i zachęcania do instalowania pomp ciepła na całym świecie, w ramach wspólnego projektu Regulatory Assistance Project, CLASP i Global Buildings Performance Network, opracowany został niniejszy poradnik w zakresie pomp ciepła, który zawiera zestaw narzędzi i porad dotyczących ich stosowania, przeznaczonych dla decydentów zainteresowanych promowaniem tej niezbędnej technologii.

Struktura niniejszego poradnika jest luźno oparta na strukturze greckiej świątyni, z fundamentem i filarami, wspierającymi szybko rozwijający się rynek pomp ciepła. Interaktywny zestaw narzędzi (zawierający klikalne linki) zawiera również krótkie filmy wideo, które przedstawiają kluczowe aspekty każdego istotnego elementu.

Niniejszy zestaw narzędzi stanowi syntezę różnych sposobów promowania wdrażania pomp ciepła oraz przewodnik po projektowaniu najlepszych pakietów polityk. Kompletny pakiet polityk musi uwzględniać fundament, ale także brać pod uwagę każdy filar. Przedstawiamy szczegóły, przykłady i potencjalne problemy oraz rozwiązania w ramach różnych omawianych elementów polityk.

Fundament tego zestawu narzędzi to potrzeba koordynacji i komunikacji wokół działań, strategii i polityk dotyczących pomp ciepła.

W filarze 1 rozważane są instrumenty ekonomiczne i rynkowe. Instrumenty te są zasadniczo związane z równoważeniem ekonomiki różnych technologii grzewczych w kierunku czystych opcji, takich jak pompy ciepła, tak, aby ich koszty w całym okresie użytkowania były niższe niż alternatywy oparte na paliwach kopalnych.

Filar 2 dotyczy wsparcia finansowego. W ramach tego filaru identyfikujemy trzy kluczowe elementy wsparcia finansowego dla pomp ciepła – dotacje i ulgi podatkowe, pożyczki oraz rozwiązania typu heat-as-a-service (ciepło jako usługa).

Filar 3 uwzględnia regulacje i standardy. Przyglądamy się kodeksom budowlanym i normom dotyczącym budynków, normom dotyczącym urządzeń oraz planowaniu i strefowaniu ogrzewania.

Aby zbudować skuteczny pakiet polityk dotyczących pomp ciepła, decydenci muszą wziąć pod uwagę tak fundament, jak również każdy z filarów, dostosować je do specyfiki lokalnej, wdrożyć oraz monitorować skuteczność ich funkcjonowania.

Clean heat standards: New tools for the fossil fuel phaseout in Europe

Europe is heavily reliant on fossil fuels in the heating sector. The EU has set itself a goal of deploying 30 million additional heat pumps by 2030. To advance the transition away from fossil fuels in the heating sector, the EU and its Member States have recently proposed or agreed on several heat-related policies. This includes an emissions trading scheme for greenhouse gases from heating and transport. The European Commission also announced that it will propose a revision of ecodesign rules for heating appliances, meaning a de facto ban on the sale of standalone fossil fuel boilers by 2029.  Despite these positive actions, additional policy measures are needed to achieve rapid, effective and fair decarbonisation of heating. 

This paper explores how novel policy tools called ‘clean heat standards’ could reinforce the EU framework for heat decarbonisation. Clean heat standards place a quantitative target on market actors, such as energy network companies, energy suppliers and manufacturers of heating equipment, to decarbonise heating and provide some flexibility in how to achieve it. This definition captures different tools, including some already discussed or in use in France, Ireland, the United Kingdom and the United States. These tools can complement other clean transition policies, for instance appliance standards and bans can directly rule out certain technologies from the market, while clean heat standards could provide a positive target for market actors to meet.  

Clean heat standards, coupled with complementary policies, can help accelerate the transition away from fossil fuel heating. RAP offers recommendations to help decision-makers make the most of these tools.

Standards for EV smart charging: A guide for local authorities

The electrification of road transport is happening – and it is already having a profound impact on the energy system and our cities. As more and more people drive electric, smart charging can ease the integration of the newcomers into the grid.

Smart charging enables charging to automatically happen at times when electricity costs are lowest – without compromising the needs of vehicle owners. As a result, smart charging creates a powerful opportunity to use more renewable energy and better utilise existing grids, accelerating the energy transition while reducing costs for all.

Cities are essential actors in making smart charging happen at a large scale. Every time they publish a public procurement procedure and every time they issue permits for EV infrastructure, it is in their hands to make smart charging work better — now and in the years to come.

But how can local authorities deploy a future-proof, robust smart charging network, with technology rapidly evolving?

Important standards supporting smart charging – such as vehicle-to-grid (V2G) – are not yet available for charging stations built today. To avoid becoming obsolete before the end of its expected lifetime, infrastructure must be ready for future upgrades.

Authors Luka De Bruyckere of ECOS and Jaap Burger from RAP offer a guide for local authorities to help ensure that cities can take these standardisation developments into account when procuring charging infrastructure.

Power Outage Rapid Response Toolkit

Interruptions in electricity supply – ‘the lights going out’ – make for arresting headlines and capture public attention. Yet it is strikingly rare for any kind of electricity generation shortfall to trigger blackouts: major reliability events are nearly always the result of grid failure incidents such as wires frying or being damaged by trees.

Furthermore, none of the recent events that have occurred in markets with high shares of renewables have been caused by over-reliance on renewables to provide sufficient electricity supplies. In spite of this, the fossil energy industry has a track record of seizing on any opportunity to promote the narrative that more fossil generation is needed and that the growing shift to renewables is undermining and driving up the cost of secure supplies.

To dispel many of the myths surrounding the causes of recent significant power outages, the toolkit looks at four case studies: Texas 2021, California 2020, Great Britain 2019 and South Australia 2016.

These case studies prove it is important that advocates for a clean energy transition can set the record straight quickly, credibly and substantively. This package equips advocates with information and tools to respond quickly to the misinformation that spreads rapidly in the wake of power grid reliability events, and in particular:

• introduces the advocate to reliability events, and their causes and consequences; 
• provides a checklist for advocates to understand and analyse emerging reliability events (a separate, interactive checklist can be downloaded here: Power Grid Rapid Response Checklist);
• provides holding lines for advocates during the information vacuum that normally proceeds a reliability event;
• explains why large-scale reliability events are almost always caused by network failures and not renewable electricity generation.

Taking the burn out of heating for low-income households

The future of heat in buildings is not fossil fuelled. The urgency of the climate crisis, Europe’s 2030 climate targets, the current war in Ukraine and the resulting skyrocketing energy prices all mean we need to massively accelerate efforts to move away from burning fossil fuels in our homes. This is no small task as fossil fuels currently account for over 75% of heat supply, and the residential sector is Europe’s single biggest fossil gas user, responsible for 40% of gas consumption.

The recent energy price volatility and the cripplingly high gas prices make the economics of switching from fossil fuel heating to heating with a heat pump better in 2022 than before the crisis. Those households that can afford it may well be considering the switch.

For lower-income households, however, the high prices make all forms of heating – and most other household expenses – less affordable. For these people, the switch to clean heating is further away than ever. But the risks of remaining locked into expensive fossil fuel use are more acute due to high and volatile prices, rising costs of redundant infrastructure and, potentially, exorbitant costs for hydrogen.

RAP analysis establishes the upfront investment and running costs to switch to heating with a heat pump, before and after the price crisis. Based on this assessment, Louise Sunderland and Duncan Gibb set out strategies to make the switch to clean heating affordable and safe for lower-income households. Targeted subsidies for upfront investment in clean heating technologies are essential, alongside reforms to electricity pricing to help ensure bills are affordable. The study also explores a range of other strategies to secure affordable clean heat such as bringing together combinations of building-level technologies, services and the benefits of cheap renewable electricity generation. We present five recommendations for:

• Prioritising lower-income households in heat decarbonisation strategies.
• Ensuring an ‘energy efficiency first’ approach to reduce heating needs.
• Providing targeted subsidies for clean technologies.
• Rebalancing burdens away from electricity bills and directing social support to electricity bills.
• Focussing Europe’s innovation attention on the needs of lower-income households.

Good COP/Bad COP: Balancing fabric efficiency, flow temperatures and heat pumps

Heat pumps are widely recognised as the key technology to decarbonise building heat demand in Ireland. To receive grants for heat pumps, homeowners in Ireland are required to have a heat demand per unit of floor area, known as a ‘heat loss indicator’ (HLI), below a certain level. The HLI requirement was designed to protect households from high bills if they switched to a heat pump.  

There is a concern that the HLI is limiting heat pump deployment, thereby hindering Ireland’s goal of net zero in 2050. This review of the HLI policy and associated rules was undertaken alongside a discussion of heat pumping technologies and their operation, optimal performance and innovation. While there is still a major role for building fabric energy efficiency upgrades, innovation in heat pumping technologies means they may be able to more easily replace combustion-based technologies than has been previously assumed due to better performance and higher output temperatures.

To achieve more rapid and potentially smoother deployment of heat pumps, current HLI grant requirements should be reevaluated. Initially, the HLI requirements could be loosened, subject to relevant consumer advice and protections. In the longer term, a focus on flow temperatures and in-situ performance may be more appropriate. Building fabric efficiency requirements could be maintained but simplified. Finally, trials and programmes to evaluate heat pump performance in Irish buildings should be expanded and expedited in order to provide accurate and local data on this strategically important technology.

Using Benefit-Cost Analysis to Improve Distribution System Investment Decisions: Reference Report

Electric utility regulators are paying closer attention than ever before to individual distribution system investment decisions, in part because of the rapid growth in distributed energy resources and the need for new grid modernization investments.

To achieve the best outcomes for ratepayers and society, regulators need robust and comprehensive tools for evaluating utility investments. Benefit-cost analysis is, in many cases, a superior analytical tool to traditional least cost/best fit methods. It can recognize and maximize a wider range of benefits and consider a broader range of impacts. It also allows for a more detailed analysis.

This reference report compares the two analytical approaches and describes the many opportunities to use benefit-cost analysis (BCA) in new and better ways.

Author John Shenot and contributors Elaine Prause and Jessica Shipley also explore five crucial questions that regulators must answer as they shape benefit-cost analysis policies for their jurisdictions:

• In what proceedings will we use BCA methods?
• Who will conduct BCAs?
• How will we engage stakeholders?
• Which cost-effectiveness test(s) will we use?
• How will we use BCA results to make decisions?

The reference report includes many examples of BCA use from state regulatory proceedings.

A companion issue brief offers a condensed treatment of the topic for those seeking a summary.

A policy toolkit for global mass heat pump deployment

Heat pumps, a critical technology for clean energy systems, are poised to become the most important technology for heating decarbonisation. Currently, the vast majority of heat is provided by fossil fuels. In order to promote and encourage heat pump installations across the globe, the Regulatory Assistance Project, CLASP and the Global Buildings Performance Network have developed this heat pump policy toolkit, which provides a suite of tools, and advice on how to use them, for policymakers interested in promoting this critical technology.

The structure of the toolkit is loosely based on that of a Greek temple, with foundations and pillars, supporting a rapidly growing heat pump market. The interactive toolkit (which includes clickable links throughout) also features short videos that give an overview of each relevant element of the toolkit. These videos make up a short series which complements this document.

This toolkit works as a synthesis of policy approaches to heat pump deployment and a guide to designing the best packages of policies. As you’ll see in the toolkit (and in the graphic below), a complete policy package needs to consider foundational elements and must also take account of each pillar. We provide details, examples and potential issues, and solutions within the various policy elements discussed.

Foundational elements of this toolkit recognise the need for coordination and communication around heat pump policy efforts and strategies.

Pillar 1 considers economic and market-based instruments. These instruments are fundamentally associated with balancing the economics of heat use towards clean options, such as heat pumps, so that their lifetime costs are cheaper than fossil-based alternatives.

Pillar 2 considers financial support. Within this pillar, we identify three key elements of financial support for heat pumps — grants and tax rebates, loans and heat-as-a-service packages.

Pillar 3 considers regulations and standards. We look at buildings codes and standards, appliance standards and heat planning and zoning.

To build an effective heat pump policy package, policymakers must consider foundational elements as well as each of the pillars. And even within each pillar, combinations of elements may be appropriate.

Collaborating for Gas Utility Decarbonization

Beginning in late 2021, RMI and National Grid jointly convened a series of facilitated collaborative workshops with stakeholders from the nonprofit and utility sectors across several regions, including RAP. This roundtable group explored what it may take to decarbonize the gas distribution system in the United States and the customer end uses it serves today, with a focus on the nation’s residential and commercial buildings.

This report, the roundtable’s final product, describes how the process was designed and conducted and lays out a set of guiding principles and strategies to inform decarbonization of the gas utility and corresponding end uses. Because participants had widely divergent perspectives on an array of issues, the report seeks to reflect initial areas of consensus and does not necessarily reflect the specific policy positions of any individual participating organization. This report is meant as a first step to inform further discussion and action for policymakers and regulators, primarily at the state level.