随着容量电价机制改革持续推进，虚拟电厂有望在提升系统灵活性、保障电力安全和促进新能源消纳方面发挥更大作用。然而，仅依靠容量补偿难以形成可持续商业模式，其长期发展仍取决于电能量市场价格信号能否充分反映其系统价值。本文分析了现货市场价格约束、中长期市场交易机制和合约设计对虚拟电厂收益与投资激励的影响，并结合国际经验提出政策建议，包括进一步放宽现货市场价格限制、持续推进中长期市场量价改革、推广金融差价合约，以及坚持资源中立、技术中立原则，为虚拟电厂等灵活性资源创造公平竞争环境。通过完善价格形成机制和市场设计，虚拟电厂将能够获得与其系统贡献相匹配的经济回报，更好支撑新型电力系统安全、高效、低碳运行。

本文首刊于《南方能源观察》，2026年3月30日

China’s virtual power plants (VPPs) are poised to play a growing role in enhancing power system flexibility, maintaining reliability, and integrating renewable energy. While recent capacity pricing reforms have strengthened investment incentives for flexible resources, sustainable VPP business models will ultimately depend on electricity markets that accurately value and reward flexibility.

This article examines how price constraints in China’s spot market and existing long-term market arrangements continue to limit the value that VPPs can provide. It argues that further reforms are needed to strengthen market signals, including relaxing spot market price limits, advancing long-term market liberalization, expanding the use of financial contracts for differences, and ensuring technology- and resource-neutral market participation for all resources.

Together, these reforms would enable VPPs and other flexible resources to compete on equal terms, receive compensation that reflects their system value, and make a greater contribution to a secure, efficient, and low-carbon power system.